Sabato, 26 Mag, 2018

Republicans Claim To Have Made Up Ground In Early Voting

Trump Mixes Business With Politics at DC Hotel Opening Ceremony Trump Mixes Business With Politics at DC Hotel Ceremony
Rufina Vignone | 29 Ottobre, 2016, 01:27

Back in 2015 I looked at the field of some twenty Republican and Democratic candidates and concluded that only three were "message" candidates; Senator Bernie Sanders, businessman Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz.

In early voting in other parts of the country, Clinton is showing strength in Florida and North Carolina, both must-win states for Trump, as well as the battleground states of Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. There are even favorable signs for Clinton in Republican-leaning Utah and Texas.

Early voter turnout data make it only harder to predict North Carolina elections for president, senate and governor. More than 13.4 million votes have been cast, far higher than the rate in 2012, according to Associated Press data.

One stop began October 20 and ends statewide November 5 at 1 p.m. Election Day is November 8.

These stories of voting irregularities aren't likely to be the last ones we hear of; and as Trump likely continues to spiral, we'll probably continue to see increasingly baseless accusations of voter fraud and other alleged attempts to "rig" the election.

"We have led in absentee mail returns in six of the past seven days in Iowa, and we've cut the Democrats' advantage to fewer than 20,000 returned ballots this cycle", Carr added. In Nevada, for example, Republicans have a roughly 1,600-vote lead in mail-in votes, while Democrats have a 28,155-vote lead in in-person voting. Numerous voters removed from rolls are in Cumberland County, an area with a statistically higher number of Black and African-American voters than the rest of North Carolina (35% compared to 21.5%). And there are tens of millions of independent voters who will turn in ballots. They'll need to close that gap if they want to hold onto the state that Barack Obama carried twice.

This is an important point to remember when reading early voting numbers: Even a big lead now doesn't mean a big win on November 8.

Against this backdrop, we're seeing the first few days of early voting in a number of states, and the first few reports of real voting issues.

The Peach State doesn't register voters by party, so it's impossible to know whether more Democrats or Republicans have voted. All are crucial for Trump.

In Nevada, for example, Democrats seem to be slightly ahead of where they were in the first week of in-person early voting in 2012.

Democrats are ahead of Republicans in terms of returning ballots, and their lead is growing. Ballots from older white voters declined significantly while those from Hispanics and Asian-Americans rose. Democrats tend to vote during one stop, while more Republicans will wait until the day of the election.

Still, early voting can be a good indicator of voter turnout.

North Carolina reduced its early voting window, but the total ballots cast so far are largely on track with 2012 - when 61 percent of the vote was cast early. Ballots rose in Arizona especially among younger adults and Latinos. Democrats have a strong lead in early voting in North Carolina right now, but then, they did in 2012 early voting as well. At this point in 2012, black voters were 30 percent of the electorate.

Overall turnout is down for both Democrats and Republicans this year in Iowa.

The trends out West may bode well for Democrats in two Republican strongholds.

Republicans had small leads earlier this month, when voters were casting absentee ballots. That could mean that Evan McMullin, a third-party candidate, is drawing support from Republicans unhappy with Trump. The number of Democratic ballots returned is down by 14.8 percent from this point in 2012, compared with Republicans' 8.8 percent decline. In Florida, mail-in voting by far beats out in-person voting - 1.6 million mailed votes have been cast to 864,000 in-person votes. More than 969,000 ballots were cast as of late Tuesday, based on reports from the top 15 counties, a 46 percent increase. "They may not necessarily approve of a particular party that they're voting in but they want to do something to have a voice, (and) the primary elections that have become more and more the deciding election, particularly at the local level". On the first day alone, the West Virginia secretary of state said 24,251 voters cast ballots. Meanwhile, the share of white voters has climbed from 64 percent at this point in 2012 to 72 percent now. This year, it's 969,000 - almost 10 percent.

Democrats lead early ballot requests in Iowa, 43 percent to 35 percent. But that's well off the 8.5-point advantage the GOP had at this stage of the 2012 race. They were up by about 18,000 votes earlier this week, but now they lead by only about 6,000 - or 0.3 percentage points.

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